AI Pull-in Crowds Out Conventional DRAM Supply
The TAIEX on the 28th rose 939.35 points to close at 47035.58 points, with turnover at 7221.35億元. Memory stocks advanced, lifted by a nearly 3% gain in Micron and an investor conference by Powertech(6239). A state-owned brokerage report notes generative AI demand has changed the semiconductor cycle pattern, with Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron prioritizing capacity toward high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and high-end dies, constraining conventional DRAM supply. Producing HBM3E consumes 3 times the wafer capacity of conventional DDR5, with HBM4 and HBM4E reaching 3.5 times and 5 times respectively, and with the HBM4 bus width doubling, capacity is locked up, extending the shortage and high-price cycle into 2027.
Server Demand Fills Consumer Electronics Gap
On end demand, smartphones and PCs and other consumer electronics saw shipments edge down amid rising memory prices, but the server market showed pull-in momentum. Global server shipments for this year and 2027 are forecast to grow 13% and 17% year-on-year respectively, with servers accounting for more than 40% of total DRAM usage, filling the gap in the consumer market. In addition, accelerating enterprise SSD penetration has kept NAND Flash pricing resilient at high levels.
State-Owned Brokerage Names 4 Stocks With Buy Ratings
The state-owned brokerage assigns Buy ratings to 4 benchmark stocks. Nanya Technology(2408) benefits from rising high-end DRAM prices and full capacity utilization, with its 1C new process expected to enter validation in the first quarter of 2027, and forecast EPS of 77.85 yuan and 133.21 yuan for this year and 2027 respectively, with a target price of 800 yuan. Winbond(2344) topped 30% market share after acquiring Infineon’s NOR Flash and F-RAM business, investing nearly 400億元 to expand 16nm DRAM capacity at its Kaohsiung fab, with forecast EPS of 27.34 yuan and 61.23 yuan respectively and a target price of 300 yuan. Phison(8299) has forecast EPS of 467.05 yuan and 594.31 yuan respectively, with a target price of 3000 yuan. Innodisk(5289) is deeply engaged in Edge AI edge computing, with forecast EPS of 389.96 yuan and 404.71 yuan respectively and a target price of 2000 yuan.