馬斯克 Ignites Memory Rally
Tesla CEO 馬斯克 said robots demand even more memory, exceeding everything on 地球, and shortages will worsen at the mass-production stage. The market has refocused on memory stocks, bringing Taiwan-listed supply chains such as 南亞科 and 華邦電 into focus. Institutional investors noted that with the arrival of the physical AI robot era, in addition to surging memory demand, opportunities in customized ASIC chips cannot be ignored.
台積電 Leads, Semiconductor ETFs Differ in TSMC Weighting
According to CMoney statistics, as of 10月28日, there are 5 semiconductor ETFs holding 台積電 as their largest holding. Taishin Taiwan IC Design ETF (00947) holds 創意 as its largest holding at 11.68%, while all other Taiwan semiconductor ETFs hold 台積電 as their largest holding. In terms of performance, Taishin Taiwan IC Design rose 131.86% over the past 1 year, the best performer; over 3 years, Taishin Taiwan Semiconductor 30 (00904) led with a 282.84% total return including dividends. Investors optimistic about the growth and price upside of memory and ASIC companies may gradually add semiconductor ETF positions in batches as 台積電 share price rebounds near the six-month moving average.
Institutions Eye Short-Term Support and Election Rally
Huang Yumin, manager of the two ETFs, 黃鈺民 said semiconductor stock weakness mainly reflects surging U.S. Treasury yields. However, strong earnings from U.S. tech companies and continued robust 2027 earnings outlook could support short-term buying, while 台積電's latest earnings call confirmed strong global semiconductor chip demand, raising earnings visibility, with AI demand set to bring new orders. In the short term, prices will still depend on AI capital expenditure, memory demand, and whether corporate earnings provide further support.
For the medium to long term, 黃鈺民 expects the U.S. midterm elections in November and Taiwan local elections to arrive, with historical experience showing a higher probability of market gains before elections. With the semiconductor industry growth trend intact and corporate earnings fundamentals still supported, Taiwan stocks could stage a technical rebound after a corrective phase once external uncertainties clear. Taiwan's AI and semiconductor supply chains have strong order-taking ability, and with advanced processes, a mature ecosystem, and long-term customer relationships, their core position is hard to replace in the near term. Investors are advised to hold semiconductor sector ETFs in batches, or ETFs centered on IC design and memory, to capture the broadening AI rally.