IC design leader 聯發科 held an earnings call on 上週五30日, forecasting 第四季 data center revenue to reach 25億美元, and expressing confidence that 2027年 data center revenue will reach the upper end of the prior target range at about 160億美元. However, the share price hit limit-down, closing at 3915元. Financial expert 阮慕驊 pointed out on Facebook that 聯發科 第三季 operating cash flow turned negative; after the earnings call the market debated the negative free cash flow, but what truly deserves attention in 第三季 is that even operating cash flow turned negative.
Operating cash flow turns negative as inventory climbs sharply
聯發科 第三季 net cash outflow from operating activities was 42.56億元, compared with a net inflow of 242.51億元 in 前季 and a net inflow of 391.81億元 in 去年同期. Operating cash flow turned from positive to negative, mainly due to a sharp increase in inventory. 第三季 net inventory reached 1535.31億元, up about 56% from 984.21億元 in 前季 and up about 170% from 569.64億元 in 去年同期. Inventory turnover days also rose from 102天 in 前季 to 127天, versus only 68天 in 去年同期. The single-quarter inventory increase of about 551億元 exceeded net profit of 282億元, so cash was 大量 tied up in inventory.
ASIC stocking characteristics raise capital occupation
On why 聯發科 inventory surged, 阮慕驊 speculates it is not intuitively unsold goods, but advance stocking for 第四季 TPU shipments. The quarterly inventory increase of 551.10億元, about 56%, was far higher than the 10.4% revenue growth in the same period, while 聯發科 first AI accelerator only began initial shipments in 9月, and is expected to contribute 25億美元 in revenue in 第四季, about 新台幣792.5億元. Assuming ASIC gross margin is lower than smartphone chips, the cost of this 第四季 revenue is estimated at about 五成至六成, implying related stocking of about 400億至500億元, similar in scale to the 第三季 inventory increase. The ASIC production model requires 聯發科 to first purchase wafers from 台積電 and pay CoWoS packaging costs, with delivery only after the chips are completed. So in the early stage of mass production, inventory rises first and operating cash flow turns negative first, which is inherently characteristic of this model. This is also consistent with 聯發科 statement that inventory rose to 1535.31億元 to meet subsequent product stocking needs.
Risk lies in next generation; CEO denies delay rumors
阮慕驊 stressed that 聯發科 risk lies in the next generation, not the current one. The market rumored that the TPU v9 project was delayed and might only ship in 2028年, with concerns mainly focused on next-generation products. CEO 蔡力行 denied the rumors at the earnings call, saying progress was fully in line with expectations. That is a separate matter from 第三季 inventory.