Benchmark closes higher as 聯發科 falls below NT$4,000 mark
Taipei stocks opened higher and fluctuated on the 27th, ending up 54.8 points at 46096.23, up 0.12%, with turnover of 達新台幣9765.47億元. IC design leader 聯發科 (2454) remained under foreign-investor selling pressure, falling 50 to close at 3960, breaking below the 4000 integer mark. From the September 22 high of 5480 to 4010 on October 22, the pullback reached 26.8% in just one month, clearly underperforming the broader market.
High valuation raises concerns; expert warns of chasing-high risks
Financial expert 陳重銘 noted that investors who bought at the 5480 high would face a book loss of over 1 million per lot, equivalent to losing a new car. He reiterated that "a big rally is the biggest bearish signal," warning investors about chasing-high risks. Based on this year's institutional forecast of earnings per share of 70, the P/E reached 78 times at 5480, and even after pulling back to around 4000, the P/E remains at 57 times, clearly high compared with 台積電 (2330) at less than 22 times. Although some foreign investors are optimistic that earnings per share could challenge 400 in 2028, the market remains skeptical about whether such long-term forecasts can materialize.
Two high-content ETFs named, performance beats 0050
陳重銘 said 聯發科 has a deep global IC-design moat and sound fundamentals, but prices above 5000 have already priced in earnings for the next several years. He advocates combining offense with defense, holding indirectly through ETFs rather than chasing the stock directly. ETFs currently holding higher weights in 聯發科 include Nomura Taiwan New Technology 50 (00935) at about 14.37%, and Capital Semiconductor Income (00927) at about 13.16%. In terms of one-year returns, 元大台灣50 (0050) posted 72.17%, while 00927 reached 98.78% and 00935 reached 104.12%, both sharply outperforming 0050.
Wait-and-see mood ahead of earnings call; diversified positioning for stability
Ahead of the 聯發科 earnings call scheduled for this Friday, market sentiment has turned cautious. 陳重銘 noted that investing should "go slower to get there faster," and investors who are bullish on leading technology names long term but worried about single-stock volatility can choose ETFs with diversified holdings and stronger growth momentum, participating in industry growth while reducing the impact of a sharp fall in a single stock, for steady long-term positioning. Investing involves risks; investors should read the prospectus carefully before subscribing and prudently assess their own risk tolerance.