Single-day net selling does not mean turning bearish
In stock investing, buying and selling by foreign investors and investment trusts attract much attention. 超馬芭樂 reminded in the latest episode of 《投資不踩雷》 that investors should not judge the bull-bear trend based only on single-day or short-term institutional trading, but should observe cumulative buying and selling over a period, holding ratios, and which targets the trading is concentrated in, to find a suitable entry price range. He said institutions hold huge positions, and even when optimistic about a stock, they still take profits after large gains, so institutional trimming does not necessarily mean loss of confidence in the stock, and may just be realizing gains. Judging that the market or a stock has problems only from short-term selling can easily lead to misjudging the trend.
Stocks with synchronized accumulation still need a pullback
超馬芭樂 pointed out that during 6月23日至10月21日, targets with synchronized accumulation by foreign investors and investment trusts included 統一, 廣達, 凱基金, 玉山金, 兆豐金, 緯創 and 合庫金. But he reminded that institutional optimism does not mean share prices will not fall first, and investors still need to wait for a price correction and enter when back to a reasonable range to be safer. Even when the chip direction is bullish, chasing highs still carries risk, and patiently waiting for a correction is an important concept for improving robustness. Investors should use institutional moves as a reference, not as a guarantee for immediate entry.
Synchronized reduction does not mean fundamental deterioration
On the other hand, 聯電, 國巨, 旺宏, 華邦電 and 群創 were synchronously reduced by foreign investors and investment trusts during the same period. However, institutional selling does not mean the companies will have operational problems; the key is the original size of institutional holdings. 超馬芭樂 cited 聯電 as an example, noting that if foreign holdings reach millions of lots, selling tens of thousands of lots in one period has relatively limited impact on overall holdings. Some targets saw domestic-foreign divergence, such as 宏碁 seeing foreign accumulation and investment-trust reduction during this period, but if investment-trust holdings were already limited in scale, the selling pressure on the share price would also be relatively limited. Investors should examine the proportion held by institutions, not just the number of lots.
Three steps to judge reasonable entry levels
On judging reasonable buying points, 超馬芭樂 proposed three key points. First, check the weekly chart, together with the bar chart of foreign and investment-trust buying/selling, to observe the starting point of the trend. Second, use a relatively long moving average, such as the 18個月均線, to grasp the average holding cost of institutions. Third, if the share price returns near the institutional holding cost and institutional holdings show no obvious loosening, it can be used as a basis for evaluating entry. This episode is financial knowledge content planned and produced by 鏡好聽, with no paid placement or advertising cooperation with any investment trust or investment advisory firm. The content reflects personal experience sharing by the host or guests, with no buy-sell recommendations. 《投資不踩雷》 is updated every Tuesday and is available on the 鏡好聽APP, YouTube and major streaming platforms.