Upward Growth Revision Coexists With Foreign Withdrawal
CIER revised up this year's economic growth forecast to 12.16%, with export growth projected at 40.51% YoY and private investment growth at 10.77%. Yet as of October 20, foreign investors' cumulative net selling of Taiwan stocks this year exceeded NT$2.11 trillion, the first NT$2-trillion-level record in securities history, with 中台 TSMC alone accounting for about NT$1.9 trillion in net selling, reflecting global investors' adjustments to asset allocation and risk management.
Dual Pressure on Equities and Currency Met by Central Bank FX Sales
The NT dollar closed at 32.617 on October 20. Central bank balance-of-payments data shows a first-half current-account surplus of US$1210.3 hundred million, with financial-account net assets up US$1181.2 hundred million, as export surpluses coincided with accumulating overseas assets. From October 12 to 16, foreign net outward remittances reached US$17.961 billion, while the NT dollar depreciated 1.37% over the same period. The central bank had already sold US$17.039 billion in foreign exchange in the first half to ease market volatility.
Eight State-Linked Banks Buy Consecutively to Absorb Selling
The eight government-linked banks posted 10 straight trading days of net buying totaling NT$192.25 billion through October 20. Market attention is focused on the role, purchase amounts, and risks borne by labor pension, labor insurance, civil-service pension, and postal funds therein, and whether the investments reflect professional managers' long-term judgment or policy considerations; the government and relevant agencies are obliged to explain clearly. Meanwhile, financial holding groups' overseas exposure reached NT$31.47 trillion, and major tech firms expanded overseas operations, deepening the financial system's linkage with international markets.
Industrial Divergence and Purchasing-Power Concerns
Commentary notes the government should focus on industrial structure and long-term planning, rather than using stock-market performance as a measure of governance. While NT-dollar depreciation benefits exporters' conversion gains, it erodes public purchasing power. As AI and semiconductors drive headline data, other industries and grassroots workers benefit little. If the domestic investment environment lacks appeal, with savings exceeding investment and funds flowing overseas, industrial divergence and income gaps may widen, while high-level buying by public funds may mislead investors and raise retirement-security risks.