Top Volume in 10月, Scale Breaks NT$100 Billion Mark
Taiwan equities stayed in a high-level volatile pattern in 10月, while trading activity in the ETF market continued to heat up. From the start of 10月 to 10月29日, a total of 7 ETFs recorded a daily average trading volume above 10萬 lots, among which 主動中信台灣收益 (00406A) posted a daily average volume of 63.8萬 lots, far ahead of other ETFs. Its scale also broke through the NT$100 billion mark in 10月, climbing to NT$1,265.3億元, narrowing the gap with 主動統一升級50 (00403A) to less than 20億元. 00403A saw volume expand again on 30日 and is expected to surpass 00406A in scale to become Taiwan's second-largest active ETF.
Monthly Payouts, Three Successful Dividend Fill-ins Dispel Doubts
According to institutional observers, since its listing in 6月, 00406A delivered a surprisingly high payout in 7月, has gone ex-dividend three times to date with each dividend filled, dispelling investors' doubts about a product "robbing Peter to pay Paul." At the same time, its stable high monthly payouts address the unstable payouts of traditional high-dividend products, which explains its rapid rise in a short time. 00406A will go ex-dividend on 11月3日, distributing 0.138元 this time; based on the intraday price of 8.5元 on 30日, the implied annualized payout ratio is about 19.5%. Trading remained active amid volatile markets, with volume of about 79.7萬 lots and turnover of about 71.6億元 on 10月29日, showing continued high market attention.
Weak US Tech Earnings Intensify Taiwan Market Volatility
On the other hand, US tech giant Alphabet reported third-quarter results, with revenue up 25% year-on-year to US$1275.8億美元 and Google Cloud revenue more than doubling, but total revenue and adjusted EPS still missed market expectations, while free cash flow turned negative, raising investor concerns about the returns on massive AI capital spending. Alphabet shares plunged more than 10% in after-hours trading after the release. As the market reassesses AI investment returns, with tech valuations already relatively high, volatility in Taiwan equities has also intensified recently.
Manager: Focus on AI Supply Chain Fundamentals
Looking ahead, 張書廷, manager of 主動中信台灣收益 (00406A), said that recent market moves have been driven by liquidity and valuation corrections, making short-term index volatility hard to avoid, but from a fundamental perspective, demand in AI servers, high-performance computing (HPC), advanced packaging, ABF substrates and high-end PCB continues to grow, with no material change in the earnings outlook for related companies. As large-cap tech stocks have accumulated sizable gains, market expectations for corporate earnings and outlooks have risen accordingly; once growth falls short of expectations, more pronounced valuation corrections may follow, and the market may shift to high-level index volatility with rapid sector rotation. 張書廷 noted that the current correction is more about liquidity and valuations than weakening fundamentals. As long as AI capital spending and semiconductor demand do not cool materially, the medium- to long-term bull structure for Taiwan equities remains fundamentally supported, while in the short term investors should watch US tech stock moves, interest-rate policy, foreign-investor flows and geopolitical variables.