Holiday Demand Cools as Sales Decline Together
With Halloween approaching, the US candy market has not been as lively as expected. Amid higher living costs and pressure on chocolate prices, consumers are cutting back on holiday purchases. Data from market research firm NielsenIQ shows that in the one month through Oct. 17, US Halloween candy sales fell 6.7% from a year earlier. Sales in mid-September were down 11.7% year on year, wiping out pre-season sales gains accumulated over the prior 2 years and pointing to a clear weakening in overall demand.
Rising Gasoline and Food Costs Squeeze Holiday Budgets
Chris Costagli, vice president and food industry expert at NielsenIQ, noted that increased gasoline and everyday spending have heightened concerns about affordability, weighing on candy demand. The average US regular gasoline price was $4.29 per gallon as of the 23rd, up nearly 40% from a year earlier. As fuel, housing, apparel and food costs rise together, some consumers may give up on buying candy due to tight budgets even if they want to buy.
Striking Sugar-Price Gains and Noticeably Smaller Packs
Continued rising candy prices are also key. Government data shows that as of September, US candy and chewing gum prices have risen a cumulative 44% over the past 5 years, far above the 22.5% increase for food-at-home over the same period. Take discount supermarket Aldi's Mars 135-piece variety pack launched this week as an example, containing Milky Way, Trix and Snickers products and priced at $19.87, almost equivalent to the price of a 250-piece variety pack 5 years ago. NielsenIQ data also shows that through mid-October, only small-pack candy sales grew, while large and extra-large packs saw the sharpest declines. Even though average prices for some non-chocolate candies were about 3% lower than last year, it failed to lift sales growth.
Volatile Cocoa Prices, Industry Still Hopes for Peak
Cocoa prices are one of the main drivers of price increases. Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that, affected by poor weather in West Africa and speculative trading in cocoa futures, global cocoa prices climbed to a record high of $10,710 per metric ton in January 2025, then fell back to $3,241 per metric ton, but have risen again since the spring as the Iran war disrupted fertilizer supplies from Africa. In addition, the El Nino phenomenon is also expected to affect cocoa output, with hot, dry weather potentially lasting into February. Faced with rising grocery prices, Sally Lyons Wyatt, global executive vice president at market research firm Circana, observed that consumers are buying less per trip, visiting supermarkets more frequently, and delaying purchases until just before actual need. She believes candy sales may remain soft, but that does not mean this year's Halloween demand is bound to disappoint. The US candy association representing manufacturers such as Mars, Smarties and Ferrara said it is only just entering the Halloween peak sales period and remains optimistic about consumer enthusiasm and overall sales, with whether later demand can rebound still to be seen.