Overall Index Falls as Durable Goods Confidence Collapses
中央大學台灣經濟發展研究中心 released the October Taiwan Consumer Confidence Index on the 27th, with the headline index at 66.27 points, down 2.5 points from the previous month. Among the six sub-indicators, employment opportunities, price level, and timing for stock investment rose, while household financial conditions, domestic economic outlook, and purchases of durable goods fell. Purchases of durable goods stood at 82.97 points in the October survey, down sharply by 10.81 points, the lowest in over 17 years, equivalent to the confidence level during the 2009 financial crisis. 吳大任 pointed out that 3C product price hikes are intensifying, and consumers are unwilling to buy now.
Memory Surge Pushes Up Phone Prices
This survey covers consumer confidence for the next six months. Respondents indicated that new iPhone models launched in October, 三星 phones and others saw sharp price increases for new models, with previous-generation products also raised, mainly due to surging memory component prices, while some manufacturers have accelerated capacity expansion. Many consumers said they would rather not replace their phones now and wait, as their old phones are still usable. New iPhone models and 三星 phones seeing successive price hikes in October have created a butterfly effect, dragging down overall consumption willingness.
Home Purchase Timing Indicator Drops 8.2 Points
Outside the six CCI components, the separate indicator for timing of real estate purchases stood at 90.64 points in the October survey, down 8.2 points from the previous month, a severe decline. 吳大任 analyzed that the 90.64 points in October only returns to a similar level as in August over a year, that is, shifting from optimism above 100 to pessimism below 100 since April 2024. The sharp rebound last month in September was likely because the survey coincided with the central bank's slight easing of real estate credit controls. In reality, funds in the entire housing market have been siphoned off by the stock market, and banks have very limited funds available for real estate lending; without mortgage loans, people cannot buy homes.
Stable Prices Mask K-Shaped Divergence Concerns
The price level sub-indicator stood at 37.54 points this month, up 0.49 points month-on-month, hitting a 1-year-10-month high. 吳大任 believes people likely felt the effects of the Executive Yuan's price stabilization measures and abundant vegetable and fruit supply with falling prices, and through cross-country comparison, inflation in the US, Korea and even Europe shows Taiwan's prices are relatively stable. For future developments, he believes close observation is needed, especially as the overall-economy-related outlook for domestic economic conditions in the next six months and household financial conditions in the next six months both declined; compared with continued record highs in AI and semiconductor exports, this now reflects the negative effects of industrial K-shaped divergence.