Current Account Surplus Widens as Financial Account Outflows Continue
Taiwan's exports have continued to grow in recent years, yet the New Taiwan dollar has fluctuated near cyclical lows. Wealth Media Chairman Hsieh Chin-ho analyzes that the current account is the balance of exports minus imports, while the financial account covers investment, deposits and accounts receivable balances, with the two showing a trend where the larger the surplus, the larger the net outflow. 二○二四年 current account surplus 一一三八億 U.S. dollars, financial account net outflow 九四四億 U.S. dollars; 二○二五年 current account surplus 一八一一億 U.S. dollars, financial account net outflow 一五七二億 U.S. dollars; 今年上半年 current account surplus 一二一○億 U.S. dollars, financial account net outflow 一一八一・九億 U.S. dollars.
High-Net-Worth Funds and Corporate Profits Mostly Kept Offshore
Hsieh Chin-ho points out that financial account net outflows are a long-term structural issue, with net inflows in only 八年 over the past 過去四十二年, almost all occurring before 二○○四年以前, the most recent in 二○○九年, when then-President Ma Ying-jeou announced a cut in the estate and gift tax rate to 一○％, now changed to progressive-bracket rates, which once triggered capital repatriation, while all other years mostly saw net outflows, showing that Taiwan's high-asset class generally keeps funds offshore and corporate profits have also not been remitted to Taiwan.
He says that when China's economy was booming in the past, high-net-worth funds were mostly placed in Hong Kong, and now mainly in Singapore, and he once visited the headquarters of DBS Bank for exchanges, where the bank disclosed that much of its funds came from Taiwan. DBS has a market value of 二一二二億 Singapore dollars, about 一七三二億 U.S. dollars, exceeding the combined total of Fubon Financial, Cathay Financial and CTBC Financial. On the corporate side, since the 九○年代 investment has focused mainly on China, with profits mostly retained in ＯＢＵ accounts and not repatriated; in recent years exports have surged on the ＡＩ boom, but corporate investment in the United States has been even larger, so current account surpluses and financial account net outflows move in tandem, and the larger Taiwan's trade surplus with the United States, the more pronounced the trend of investing in the United States.
Asian Currencies Weaken as Foreign Sell-Off Adds Pressure
Hsieh Chin-ho says the weakening trend is not unique to Taiwan, with the Korean won falling from 一二一六 to 一五八七・六八 per U.S. dollar this year at its weakest, recently rebounding to 一三二六 per U.S. dollar; the Japanese yen once fell to 一六三・九八 per U.S. dollar, now recovering to around 一五七, also remaining weak. He adds that pressure on the New Taiwan dollar's depreciation this year also comes from net foreign outflows, with foreign investors selling Taiwan stocks by over 二兆元, and such large outflows naturally create depreciation pressure.