Ten Straight Reds Rewrite 42-Year Record
The National Development Council announced the September monitoring indicator on the 29th, with a composite score of 41 points, keeping the red light signaling a heated economy. This is the 10th consecutive month of red, officially surpassing the nine-red record from February to October 2021, setting the longest consecutive red streak since the current statistical methodology was adopted in 1984 and rewriting 42 years of statistical history. The current run of strength has lasted from December 2025 through September this year. Chen Mei-chu, Director of the NDC's Department of Economic Development, noted this record-long red run differs from past episodes, which mostly appeared after the global financial crisis or the pandemic as low-base rebounds, while this round has been jointly driven by explosive growth in AI business opportunities and Taiwan's semiconductor technology advantages, sustaining economic performance from 2024 to 2025 and continuing to climb in 2026 against a high base.
Leading and Coincident Indicators Rise Together
On the leading side, the September leading index excluding trend reached 104.69, up 0.56 points month-on-month, rising for the 14th consecutive month with a cumulative gain of 6.5%. The export orders sentiment indicator continued to grow, with September export orders reaching US$114.2 billion, rising for six straight months. Total floor area of construction starts has increased sharply recently, mainly driven by continued demand for factories and office buildings from technology firms. The coincident index excluding trend reached 105.21, up 0.01% month-on-month, rising for 12 consecutive months with a cumulative gain of 5.11%, indicating steady overall growth. Chen Mei-chu said September customs exports reached US$87.22 billion, maintaining high growth, while domestic demand including wholesale, retail, and food services also performed well.
Overtime Hours Rebound to Yellow-Red
The main September change came from overtime hours in industry and services, after the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics revised down the August raw overtime figure, which had briefly turned that component green. With stable production growth in electronics and ICT products in manufacturing, plus Mid-Autumn Festival demand lifting restaurant and retail sales and corresponding service-sector employment, the overtime-hours change rate rebounded to 4.6%, turning the signal back to yellow-red and reflecting synchronized warming in labor demand in both manufacturing and services.
Aiming to Keep Red Through Year-End; High Base in Focus Next Q1
Looking ahead, Chen Mei-chu stressed there is a good chance the red light can stay on through year-end. With the Double Ten holiday in October, department-store anniversary sales, and the year-end consumption peak season, domestic demand is expected to retain momentum. On investment, domestic semiconductor, memory, and substrate makers have raised capital expenditures, foreign firms are expanding their Taiwan footprint, and the government is actively guiding SME transformation and upgrading, all supporting private investment. On consumption, strong corporate earnings should support pay raises, while recovering auto sales, holiday business, and the year-end peak season will further enliven spending. However, the first quarter of next year will face high-base pressure, as order front-loading in the second half of last year and continued electronics and ICT export growth left a high export base in the first quarter of this year, with the high-base effect expected to emerge gradually next Q1, so whether the red streak ends will depend on subsequent orders. Addressing market concerns over AI financing and massive capital spending, Chen responded that U.S. markets are watching whether cloud service providers' revenues and profits can cover capex, while Taiwan plays the picks-and-shovels role. According to TrendForce's October estimate, global CSP capex will reach US$975 billion, rising to US$1.5 trillion next year. TSMC's capex reached US$64 billion this year, will exceed the past three years over the next three years, and with Take-or-Pay long-term contracts with customers such as Nvidia locking in capacity and sharing risk through prepayments, the outlook remains optimistic. The NDC cautioned that uncertainties including geopolitical conflicts and trade-policy developments, AI corporate financing concerns, and major central banks' monetary-policy direction still warrant close attention.