Overall Confidence Down 2.5, Trends Diverge
The Research Center for Taiwan Economic Development at National Central University announced the October Consumer Confidence Index at 66.27, down 2.5 from September. Among the 6 sub-indicators, employment opportunities, price levels, and timing for stock investment rose, while family finances, domestic economic outlook, and purchases of durable goods fell. Chief Executive 吳大任 noted that although Taiwan stocks have recently faced a correction, support remains, and even with small declines, economy-related indicators are still within their recent range. Traditional industries are doing better this year than last year, with machinery and metals improving, helping confidence recover.
Durable Goods Confidence Collapses to More Than 17-Year Low
The largest decline in October was for purchases of durable goods in the next six months, plunging 10.81 from September to 82.97, the lowest level since the financial crisis and in more than 17 years. Durable goods cover real estate, automobiles and motorcycles, and 3C products. The indicator for timing to purchase real estate, compiled jointly by National Central University and Taiwan Real Estate, was 90.64, down 8.2 month-on-month, also falling sharply and becoming a key drag on overall consumer confidence.
Housing Easing Fails to Lift Confidence as Tech Inflation Heats Up
吳大任 said that although the central bank loosened selective credit controls at its September board meeting, the housing market has been sluggish for a long time, with negative momentum continuing to accumulate, which may have hit confidence performance, warranting continued attention to the indicator. 陳定中, Senior Manager at the Trend Center of Taiwan Real Estate Group, analyzed that the indicator for timing to purchase real estate surged by more than 8 points in September, so the pullback in October should be a normal adjustment, with little difference in market conditions between September and October, a slight increase in home-viewing traffic, and signed deals still brewing.
3C Price Hikes Felt, Employment Indicator Hits Nearly 2-Year High
吳大任 believes that in addition to real estate, fermenting tech inflation is an important factor. Due to stronger-than-expected AI demand, prices of related components have soared, with memory prices rising multiple-fold, driving a wave of price increases for 3C products such as mobile phones and laptops, forcing consumers to consider longer or even delay purchases, and the impact on consumer confidence has already emerged. On the other hand, the confidence indicator for employment opportunities in the next six months rose to 77.7, a nearly 2-year high, showing relatively optimistic employment conditions.
Industry Divergence and External Variables Constrain Growth
吳大任 pointed out that although headline economic data performed strongly and traditional industries are gradually emerging from their trough, industry divergence persists, causing divergent indicator trends. Going forward, attention must be paid to risks in the U.S. AI industry, and whether the U.S. and China lowering tariffs on about $30 billion of products on a reciprocal basis will create substitution effects with Taiwan export products, variables that could constrain Taiwan's growth momentum. This survey was conducted from 115年10月18日至21日 by telephone interviews with computer random sampling, covering 3162 members of the public aged over 20, with a sampling error of plus or minus 2.0 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.