Oil Pushes Up Inflation, Tightening Pressure Remains
US September consumer price index rose to 3.7% year over year from 3.4% in August, with the year-over-year increase in energy prices up 4.3 percentage points from the prior month, becoming the main force pushing up inflation. In addition, price gains in used cars, transportation services and rent expanded simultaneously, and core CPI also rose by 0.1 percentage point. Yao-ting Lo, Head of the Investment Research Department at Anue Fund, pointed out that rising oil prices are the main reason the Fed cannot ease up. If energy prices remain high, it will not only raise business operating costs, but may also delay inflation falling back to the 2% target, keeping the Fed in a tight policy stance for longer.
Jobs Cool Clearly, Showing Low Hiring and Low Layoffs
In contrast to warming inflation, the US job market has gradually cooled. US September nonfarm payrolls added only 29,000 jobs, far below 133,000 in August and below the average monthly gain of 45,000 over the past 12 months, reflecting a clear weakening in corporate hiring demand. But the September unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, and initial jobless claims did not climb明显. Lo analyzed that this shows the labor market features low hiring and low layoffs. Although companies have slowed expansion, they have not broadly cut headcount, which helps reduce inflation pressure and gives the Fed a chance to end rate hikes without triggering a recession, showing the economy remains resilient.
Key Is Soft Landing, Sizable Gains After Hikes Stop
With rate hikes nearing an end, whether US stocks will necessarily rise depends on whether the economy can achieve a soft landing. Historical statistics show that if the US economy achieves a soft landing, the average cumulative return of the S&P 500 in the 1, 2 and 3 years after rate hikes stop reaches 23%, 57% and 93.1% respectively. Although the US currently faces the challenge of energy prices pushing up inflation, the job market has not deteriorated明显, and AI investment and productivity gains support economic growth, so the chance of a soft landing remains relatively high. If oil prices stabilize, inflation cools gradually, and corporate earnings keep growing, it will support medium- to long-term US stock performance.
Phased Allocation Recommended to Diversify Entry Timing
Lo recommended that investors need not be overly pessimistic because of rising oil prices or near-term Fed rate decisions, but should not treat a stop to rate hikes as a guarantee of an immediate stock rally. At this stage, investors should keep watching energy prices, employment changes and corporate earnings, and use phased investment instead of chasing highs in one go. For fund allocation, diversified US equity funds covering multiple industries can be included, along with Taiwan equities and technology funds, to participate in the long-term AI growth trend, while using the Buy-the-Dip King mechanism to keep investing regularly and add on dips, diversifying entry-timing risk and continuing to build positions amid market volatility.