US Tech Earnings Miss Drags Taiwan Index Night Session
The four major US stock indexes opened lower and moved lower on October 29, mainly as Google parent Alphabet's third-quarter revenue and net profit missed Wall Street expectations, with free cash flow negative for 2 consecutive quarters, and guiding for a further increase in capital expenditure next year, plunging about 13% in premarket trading on the 29th. Moore Investment Advisor analyst 林漢偉 noted that Amazon and Intel also reported weak earnings after the close, plunging 10% and 21% respectively, dragging Nasdaq futures down another 1.4% in electronic trading, while the TAIFEX night session plunged 643 points, and 台積電 ADR ended four straight gains.
林漢偉 warned that if the broader market breaks below the quarterly line and prior-low support, foreign-investor futures short positions continue to hit new highs, and volume spirals out of control with excessive deviation — with all three bearish signals deteriorating together — investors should prioritize reducing positions to hedge risk. At this stage, strategy should stay focused on controlling holdings, not rushing to catch a rebound, and cutting weak holdings while keeping strong ones, waiting for a clear stabilization signal to emerge.
Taiwan Positioning Awaiting Stabilization With Year-End Seasonality as Reference
On the positioning front, margin balances stood at about 6,323億元 on October 28, up 101億元 from the end of September, while foreign investors have sold a net of about 8,130億元 so far in October. However, the quarterly and half-year moving average trends remain upward. If foreign selling pressure eases and margin positions stabilize, with the index repeatedly testing near the quarterly line without making lower lows, it will help build a base for positioning. Statistics show that over the past ten years, Taiwan stocks rose 60% of the time in November, with an average return of 3.06%, while from 2016 to 2025, the fourth quarter rose in nine years, with a 90% advance rate and an average return of 5.87%.
台達電 Investor Conference Positive, 威剛 Joins Hundred-Dollar Club
台達電 held its third-quarter investor conference on the 29th, with Chairman 鄭平 saying demand for AI servers and data centers remains growing, and fourth-quarter revenue is expected to beat the third quarter. The company's AI-related business revenue share is approaching 5成, and besides continued advances in liquid cooling and high-voltage DC power, it will also build a large manufacturing base in Penang, Malaysia to meet follow-on order demand, with growth still expected next year but the process possibly hitting roadblocks. Memory module maker 威剛 posted first-three-quarter after-tax earnings per share of 101.47元, breaking the 100-dollar mark for the first time, becoming the second member of the hundred-dollar profit club after 大立光 posted first-three-quarter after-tax earnings per share of 121.98元. In addition, the US Federal Reserve announced in the early hours of the 29th that it would keep its benchmark rate unchanged, but 2 officials voted for a 1碼 hike, with the policy statement stressing inflation remains elevated, and markets betting the odds of a December hike have broken above 80%.