TRX Falls Below Pre-Hack Level to New Low Since March
Fallout from Binance's $6.3 billion hack continues to hit Tron (TRX). Citing CoinMarketCap data, CryptoTicker reported that at 7:23 a.m. Taiwan time on November 1, TRX traded at $0.302, down 8.3% in 24 hours, not only falling below the pre-hack level of about $0.331 but also hitting a new low since March this year. Tracking by blockchain analytics firm Elliptic shows the hacker still holds about 475 million TRX and continues to sell in small, high-frequency batches, becoming the main source of selling pressure on the price.
TRX was briefly pushed up to $0.362 by heavy hacker buying after the hack, and has now fallen 16.5% from that high, underperforming mainstream coins such as Bitcoin and Ether. CryptoTicker, compiling hourly CoinGecko data, showed TRX surged to $0.362 within two hours after Binance's first abnormal outflow at 4:05 a.m. Taiwan time on October 30, then declined all the way to $0.302 by the morning of November 1, the first such level since March 17, with a market capitalization of about $28.7 billion, ranking 8th. Measured from 4 a.m. on October 30, TRX posted the largest drop among mainstream coins, followed by Binance's BNB.
$600 Million USDT Swapped Into TRX for Laundering, 546 Rapid Outflows
According to Elliptic's analysis, the hacker obtained about 612.7 million USDT on the Tron chain, of which 234 million USDT was swapped on the decentralized exchange SunSwap for 638 million TRX to avoid having stablecoins frozen by the issuer. On the morning of October 30, the TRX was dispersed to 5 new addresses, two of which were then consolidated into a single wallet, which has been sending out small batches, swapping back into USDT and then moving through exchange services and cross-chain bridges, with most ultimately converted into Ether. The wallet has made 546 transfers since October 30, with a median interval of only 96 seconds. As of 1 p.m. on October 31, $38 million to $67 million worth of TRX had left the tracked addresses, while the hacker still controlled about 475 million TRX. Elliptic also confirmed that some of the funds were laundered together with stolen funds from the earlier Bitget exploit, and Tether has blacklisted some recipient addresses.
A Bitquery investigation showed the hacker's average purchase price on SunSwap was about $0.367, significantly above the market price of about $0.33 at the time, with the main WTRXUSDT pool price at one point 18% above the market, a spread that took about 10 hours to converge, with the high-priced buying alone overpaying by about $22.4 million. In the early morning of October 30, 15 other new wallets funded by hacker Tron addresses sold 8.9 million TRX for $3.1 million USDT. At $0.302, the remaining position is worth about $143 million, with a book loss of about 18%. TRX's market capitalization has evaporated by about $1.5 billion from $31.5 billion at the time of the hack, about 10 times the value of the hacker's holdings; the holdings account for about 0.5% of circulating supply but equal about 10% of daily trading volume, making the selling pressure difficult to absorb quickly.
Focus on Withdrawal Resumption and Battle to Defend $0.3
The market is watching progress on Binance's withdrawal resumption. According to ChainCatcher, Binance said in an update at 3:33 a.m. on October 31 that it aims to gradually resume withdrawals within about 34 hours, implying around 1:30 p.m. on November 1, and will publish proof-of-reserves results before November 2. But as of 7:21 a.m. on November 1, withdrawals of BTC, ETH, TRX and major stablecoins on Binance's wallet status page still showed maintenance. On the technical side, $0.30 is the first support, followed by the March 17 close of $0.295; a return to $0.331 would signal that buying is gradually absorbing the selling pressure. In addition, U.S. stocks will reopen on November 2, and the U.S. midterm elections will be held on November 3, both of which could affect crypto market sentiment. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.