Revenue Guidance Set High
E-commerce and cloud giant Amazon will report its Q3 2026 earnings on the 29th after the U.S. market close. The company previously guided Q3 net sales of $197 billion to $202 billion, up 9% to 12% year over year, and operating income of $22.5 billion to $26.5 billion, above $17.4 billion in the same period last year. The market currently estimates revenue at about $202.11 billion, slightly above the high end of the company's guidance, with consensus EPS of about $2.01. Analysts note that EPS may be affected by investment gains, so that figure alone may not accurately reflect core operating performance, making operating income momentum more noteworthy.
Can AWS Growth Accelerate Again
Amazon Web Services (AWS) revenue reached $42.23 billion in the second quarter, up 37% year over year, with growth accelerating for five consecutive quarters. The market estimates third-quarter year-over-year growth of about 30% to 35%, and failure to extend last quarter's acceleration trend could pressure the stock. James Mitchell, analyst at crypto exchange MEXC, noted that past experience shows a better-than-expected quarter does not guarantee a stock gain, with the AWS growth rate often more influential. When AWS growth rose to 20.2% in Q3 2025 and accelerated to 36.8% in Q2 2026, the stock rose 9.58% and 15.32% respectively the day after earnings. Conversely, if growth slows, the market may reassess the growth outlook for the cloud business.
Q4 Outlook and AI Spending
The fourth-quarter operating income outlook is also a focus of this earnings report. Mitchell noted that if the midpoint of the guidance is at least 7% below analyst expectations, similar cases recently have been followed by stock declines or flat performance. With AI infrastructure spending continuing to rise, the market will also examine whether revenue growth can translate into actual profit. Capital expenditures on AI data centers and their impact on free cash flow will be key areas for investors to review, and are central to the market's assessment of the long-term profit structure.
Last Quarter's 15% Surge and Peer Comparison
Looking back at last quarter, Amazon reported second-quarter earnings on July 30 this year, with revenue reaching $200.61 billion, above the market expectation of $196.47 billion, and AWS revenue up 37% year over year to $42.23 billion, driving the stock up 15.32% the next day to close at $271.58, its largest post-earnings single-day gain in at least 3 years. EPS for the quarter reached $5.75, mainly boosted by pre-tax gains from the Anthropic investment, and cannot be viewed entirely as core operating profit. Ahead of this release, Microsoft and Alphabet already reported earnings on the 28th after the U.S. market close, and growth at Azure and Google Cloud will also shape market expectations for AWS. For Amazon, meeting third-quarter revenue expectations is only the baseline test, with the subsequent outlook being the key.